AA 2872 · FSD → DFW

departs 12:49 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2872 · FSD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?