Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 28 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 28 · LAX → JFK

departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 11:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 28 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?