AA 2905 · DFW → PHX

departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 11:06 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
30%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2905 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?