AA 2922 · DFW → LGA

departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 3:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±3 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
37%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip6.50 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2922 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?