Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2947 · PHL → DFW

departs 5:38 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2947 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?