Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2951 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2951 · PWM → PHL

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from PWM are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2951 · PWM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?