Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 295 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 295 · DFW → OGG

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

OGG (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 295 · DFW → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?