AA 2966 · ORD → SEA

departs 10:03 AM CT · arrives 12:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2966 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?