AA 3008 · ORD → LAX

departs 12:13 PM CT · arrives 2:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3008 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?