AA 3038 · MCO → LGA

departs 11:04 AM ET · arrives 1:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3038 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?