AA 3047 · PHX → PHL

departs 6:39 AM MT · arrives 2:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3047 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?