AA 3049 · STL → PHL

departs 5:46 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precip0.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3049 · STL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?