Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3058 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3058 · EWR → PHX

departs 10:54 AM ET · arrives 1:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3058 · EWR → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?