AA 3073 · PHL → BOS

departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3073 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?