AA 3083 · ATL → PHL

departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3083 · ATL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?