Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3097 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3097 · DFW → SAT

departs 9:56 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 557 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 3.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3097 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?