Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3116 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3116 · PHL → BOS

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3116 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?