AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

departs 9:58 AM CT · arrives 12:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −37 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?