AA 3140 · DFW → TUS

departs 5:02 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

TUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3140 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?