Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3145 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3145 · PHL → PBI

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PBI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at PBI that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PBI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3145 · PHL → PBI

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBI?