AA 3153 · MCO → PHL

departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3153 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?