AA 3170 · SNA → DFW

departs 7:58 AM PT · arrives 1:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3170 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?