AA 3196 · IAH → PHL

departs 7:09 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3196 · IAH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?