Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3203 · PHL → PHX

departs 1:26 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3203 · PHL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?