AA 3221 · JFK → ORD

departs 6:56 AM ET · arrives 8:29 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3221 · JFK → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?