AA 3223 · DFW → SNA

departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.20 in

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3223 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?