AA 3225 · ORD → JFK

departs 11:36 AM CT · arrives 2:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3225 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?