AA 3236 · PHL → PIT

departs 9:06 AM ET · arrives 10:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3236 · PHL → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?