AA 3243 · MDT → ORD

departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

Weather at each end

MDT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3243 · MDT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?