AA 3254 · DFW → MSY

departs 4:22 PM CT · arrives 6:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip6.50 in

MSY (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3254 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?