Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3255 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 3255 · PHX → DEN

departs 9:45 PM MT · arrives 12:37 AM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3255 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?