Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3285 · LAS → DFW

departs 12:47 PM PT · arrives 5:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±10 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3285 · LAS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?