Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 3309 · BOS → PHL

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3309 · BOS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?