AA 3327 · SAN → PHX

departs 9:47 AM PT · arrives 11:16 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3327 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?