AA 357 · PHX → PHL

departs 3:46 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 357 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?