Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 402 · DFW → PHL

departs 9:38 AM CT · arrives 2:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 402 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?