Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 403 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 403 · ORD → BUF

departs 9:19 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
40%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

BUF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 403 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?