Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 415 · PHL → DFW

departs 12:52 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±12 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 415 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?