Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 428SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 428 · PHL → PHX
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
9%chance · ±0 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.