Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 441 · FLL → PHX

departs 5:07 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.39 in

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 441 · FLL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?