Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 446 · DFW → SFO

departs 10:59 PM CT · arrives 12:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±10 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.26 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 446 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?