Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 485 · DFW → MFE

departs 8:14 PM CT · arrives 9:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±8 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

MFE (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 485 · DFW → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?