AA 528 · MFE → DFW

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
32%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 528 · MFE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?