Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 529 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 529 · ORD → LAX

departs 3:21 PM CT · arrives 5:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±9 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 529 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?