AA 555 · DFW → ELP

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 6:57 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

87% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.84 in

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 555 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?