Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 556 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 556 · LAS → JFK

departs 10:46 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 556 · LAS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?