Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 563 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 563 · PHX → MCO

departs 9:51 PM MT · arrives 5:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 563 · PHX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?