Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 564 · ORD → BUF

departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 10:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

BUF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 564 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?