AA 614 · PHL → SJU

departs 9:43 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 614 · PHL → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?