Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

departs 7:32 PM MT · arrives 12:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?